Global trade growth is on pace to dip through the rest of 2022 and into next year amid cooling global demand for imports, the World Trade Organization said in a report on Monday.
The WTO’s barometer, which captures the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends, fell to 96.2 in September from the previous reading of 100. Values below 100 indicate below-trend growth.
The index was weighed down by export orders coming in at 91.7, air freight at 93.3, and electronic components at 91. “Together, these suggest cooling business sentiment and weaker global import demand,” the WTO said.
Container shipping at 99.3 and raw materials at 97.6 was only slightly below trend “but have lost momentum,” the body said. The global economy continues to be buffeted by strong headwinds,” it added.
The automotive products index came in at 103.8 amid stronger US vehicle sales and increased exports from Japan as supply conditions improved and the yen depreciated, according to the report.
Separately on Monday, Cox Automotive said it expected new-vehicle sales in the US to jump nearly 11% year-over-year in November amid an improving supply situation.
The WTO in October predicted merchandise trade volume growth to decelerate to 1% in 2023 from a projected 3.5% in 2022 amid shocks including the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, and monetary tightening in major economies.
That 2023 outlook marked a sharp revision from the previous estimate of a 3.4% rise. # Global Trade Growth to Slow as Import Demand Softens -WTO